Issue 2. Does Britain have a Criminal Future?

Introduction

Today's article will cover the current crime environment in England, exploring some viewpoints on causes of crime, and apply them to predictions for the future, with a conclusion of my predictions and why.

Undoubtably, your Age, Sex, and Class play a role in Crime Statistics.

Five times as many men were convicted of crimes in 2022/23 in England and Wales than women (572 254 : 101 912).
Young Offenders are more common, growing from the age of eleven, peaking at seventeen, and rapidly decreasing after twenty-five.
More people from working classes are convicted of small crimes such as petty theft, compared to fewer from high classes being convicted for hidden crimes such as fraud.

My question is: why?

I. Viewpoints on Crime

We are going to start with viewpoints concerning the relationship between biological sex and crime. As previously mentioned, in 2022 and 2023, ~5/6 of all crime was made up of male offenders.

This graph shows sentence length, which links into a proposed reasoning by Pollak who proposed the Chivalry Thesis, where women are treated more loosely by the criminal justice system, and therefore commit less crime on paper, as less data is published on female offending rates. Parsons argued that due to the way women are socialised as the nurturing figurehead, they are incapable of commiting crimes, but this view is now seen as outdated and sexist.

Alternately, sociologist Messerschmidt pointed to masculinity as the cause of men commiting more crimes. He states that men constantly have to work at constructing their outwards masculinity towards others, even if it means through deviance and crime.

This graph shows, again, the higher convictions of male crime, but also highlights the "age curve"; our next area of interest.

As evidenced by the graph, in the UK, crime is a majorily teenage subject. Starting from age 10, it grows until it's peak at 17, before rapidly dropping off past 20. Cohen argues that this is because of Status Frustration. He states that working class deviant subcultures emerge due to denied status. Working class boys strive to mimic adulthood's responsibilities and values, but lack the means to achieve this goal, leading to Status Frustration. The blame is placed on complacent society, and this develops a deviant subculture that support each other in the breaking of societal norms and delinquency.

But what about the sharp decline? Marxist sociologists put this down to the forced uptaking of capitalist duties such as taxes, housing, and jobs, which leaves too little time for delinquent and deviant behaviours. They also believe that the legal and justice systems serve the needs of a Bourgeois class, that being, ensuring a false consciousness and preventing revolt - this explains why more crime is published from working classes.

On the contrary, Sutherland promoted the idea of "White collar crime", where the Bourgeoisie commit much more hide-able crimes such as fraud and scamming within business and establishments. Therefore, they are less likely to be caught than the petty theft, which causes the inequality across classes for crime statistics.

II. Predictions

Predicting the future is near impossible, but not entirely. With the help of graphs and data we can increase the likelihood of our predictions.

Prediction I. General Crime.

After the dip during the 2020/21 lockdown, we can see a steady resurgence in crime and - supported by the rise beforehand - we can predict an increase of +4.4/1000 people per year until another event such as a national lockdown, or a change to the justice system or laws.

Prediction II. Decriminalisation.

From here, any predictions become a lot more speculative, but there is a decent chance of the legalisation of recreational cannabis in the UK in the near future. It has seen success in multiple US states and in Berlin, under correct regulations, [1] so it isn't impossible to imagine that the UK may adopt this idea, as it can make more money from taxes, and reduces dangers from illegally sourced drugs.

Another potential is for drug and needle deposit banks, already seen in the Netherlands through Mainline, where you can collect clean, safe needles free of charge and anonymously, or deposit any unwanted items for safe disposal.

Prediction III. Vapour E-Cigarettes.

As we develop increasing data on the effects of "vape" pens on the human body, it is likely that restrictions will come into place to enforce packaging that doesn't cater to young markets.

And favour more like the style of Cigarette packaging...

...which intends to make clear the effects of smoking.

Another possibility is the criminalisation of vapes unless prescribed by doctors for quitting smokers, which has seen positive effect in Australia, although they are changing this legislation on the 1st October 2024 to allow anyone 18 or over to purchase nicotine vapes without prescription, but they are sold at pharmacies. [2] This would cut down on the increasing numbers of young people taking up vaping [3], and reduces the litter created by disposable vapes.

Conclusion

Crime is a complex topic, with a huge breadth of varying factors that affect its occurence and among which demographics. I am unable to compile deep levels of many opinions into a limited article, so if you are interested in further reading, take a look at:

If you want to report any crime anonymously, see Crimestoppers UK or call them on 0800 555 111, where you remain 100% anonymous.

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